Blogs
Jun
26
2011
Predicting the Future; One Group Got It Right
by Mike Kravinsky

Predictions of what will be next are usually wrong. Sometime laughably. Take for example the 1950's "in the future"  films, usually put out by some manufacturer. What we'll drive. How the kitchen of the future will be free of work, with the housewife dancing around the kitchen

Needless to say, when I listen to political pundits, end of the world doomsayers, futurists, it's more entertainment than facts to be taken seriously. Time often proves them wrong. The facts may all line up, but no one can predict how people will react. That's why, even if there's a trend or technology out there; it's no guarantee that the masses will adopt it.

That's what makes this article from June 14th, 1982 so remarkable. The New York Times published a summary of a report done by the Institute for the Future for the National Science Foundation. Not only do they get the technology right, they get the how people will react and how ubiquitous it becomes in everyday life.

They predicted the how the internet will become completely entwined in our lives. Just as a note, the World Wide Web, what makes the internet - the internet, wasn't even introduced until March 1989.

The article starts with this;

A report commissioned by the National Science Foundation and made public today speculates that by the end of this century electronic information technology will have transformed American home, business, manufacturing, school, family and political life.

The report predicts the home PC explosion, privacy issues, trade offs in control, shopping, working from home, even social media;

Friends, peer groups and alliances will be determined electronically, creating classes of people based on interests and skills rather than age and social class.

They called the the technology "teletext" and "videotext" as the word "internet" had not even been created.  If you want to read the best predictions of the future of a technology, take a look at the NYT article from 1982.

http://www.nytimes.com/1982/06/14/us/study-says-technology-could-transform-society.html

... and then there's this,

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